Charting the Market: A look into 4Q12

The battle between the bulls and bears has gotten a lot more interesting of late. While the market has enjoyed a 14% run-up since June, there have been technical signs this week of exhaustion. And rightly so. Major macroeconomic events are fast approaching and investors are beginning to weigh the costs and benefits of the … Continue reading

On the fiscal cliff, Rothschild, and the Fed

Just as soon as much of the smoke of systemic risk had cleared and the market rallied during the summer months on the back of accommodative ECB and Fed policy action, it has since resorted to a heightened state of uncertainty and alarm in recent weeks. Investors now worry about the effectiveness of the Fed’s … Continue reading

More on the Fiscal Cliff

From the ZeroHedge article this morning, “Breaking Down the Fiscal Cliff in 12 Charts,” we would agree that a resolution looks bleak in the face of fierce partisanship and a lack of political will, but given the Fed’s efforts to prop up the economy at the expense of their hugely expanded balance sheet and the … Continue reading

Clear skies not yet ahead – implication and outlook of Greek election

                                                                                                                      Source: HALC The June 17th election in Greece turned out pretty much as expected. All eyes now turn to its implications and the several concomitant steps that follow. Many are calling it a non-result since the people voted (with only a disillusioned 60% participation) in similar fashion to the first election in May (despite … Continue reading

By Hook or Crook

The big debate amongst our colleagues the past several weeks has centered around the importance of the housing market in ensuring a strong recovery. In the face of pundits’ claims such as one proposed by A. Gary Shilling that housing prices could be expected to fall another 20%, we have remained adamant contrarians bearing witness … Continue reading

Patsy Psychology

We recently came across an article posted on ZeroHedge (Retail Investors Ignore “Generational” Opportunity To Buy Stocks One More Week) that presented the latest weekly data on Domestic Equity Mutual Fund Flows and subsequently challenged the concept that retail investors are coming back to the market anytime soon. A graphic depiction of weekly domestic equity … Continue reading

Carbon Copy 2.012

Back on August 31, 2011 we made a prognostication that saw the market close of 2011 mimic that of 2010 (“Could 4Q 2011 be a Carbon Copy of 4Q 2010 for Equity Markets?“). We thus predicted the S&P would rally +20% from its August 22, 2011 low of 1,123 to close the year roughly between … Continue reading

The Market Bears come out to play

It’s spring time again. As nature has intended it, the bears are coming out of hibernation to forage for food after a long winter of inactivity. Such is also the case on Wall Street. The roughly +30% rally in the market from October 2011 lows to April 2, 2012 put the bears into their seasonal … Continue reading

Psycho-Analyzing the Market

In light of its negative reaction to an unimpressive March nonfarm payroll data, the market has sold off for the fourth consecutive trading session. Despite wary investors who now question the strength of the economic recovery, they all must take their eyes away from the microscope and look at the bigger picture. This top-down strategy … Continue reading

The Time is Now

It’s been almost six months since our last post and for good reason. Though our prognostication in October called for a 12% rally into the end of 2011 (it ended 2011 only +5%) the market has rebounded +15% in the six months since on longer-than-expected developments that have matched our market outlook including a temporary … Continue reading

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