By Hook or Crook

The big debate amongst our colleagues the past several weeks has centered around the importance of the housing market in ensuring a strong recovery. In the face of pundits’ claims such as one proposed by A. Gary Shilling that housing prices could be expected to fall another 20%, we have remained adamant contrarians bearing witness … Continue reading

Psycho-Analyzing the Market

In light of its negative reaction to an unimpressive March nonfarm payroll data, the market has sold off for the fourth consecutive trading session. Despite wary investors who now question the strength of the economic recovery, they all must take their eyes away from the microscope and look at the bigger picture. This top-down strategy … Continue reading

The Time is Now

It’s been almost six months since our last post and for good reason. Though our prognostication in October called for a 12% rally into the end of 2011 (it ended 2011 only +5%) the market has rebounded +15% in the six months since on longer-than-expected developments that have matched our market outlook including a temporary … Continue reading

Double Barrel Policy – 4Q 2011 Market Outlook

The fourth quarter upon us has market analysts offering end of the year predictions. Analysts sit on both sides of the fence, placing bets on whether or when the market will overcome its recent swoon.  We offer the more likely scenario given the global macroeconomic and political dynamics and headwinds. Since August, the markets have … Continue reading

After Jackson Hole – 4Q 2011 Market Outlook

The financial world eagerly awaited Ben Bernanke’s annual speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday morning August 26th, 2011. Market analysts and economists focused on trying to predict what panacea the Federal Reserve Chairman would offer to an ailing economy struggling to grow with unusually decade-high unemployment, low consumer demand, and depressed prices. Of the … Continue reading

Ahead of the Fed – What today’s FOMC will entail for Equity Markets

In just moments, the Fed will convene for its requisite FOMC meeting to discuss the state of economic recovery and present its strategy on how to address weakening growth, higher unemployment, and market volatility. The carnage on Wall Street has witnessed equity indices intensely selling off almost -15% since early July and beckoned the intervention … Continue reading

A Tale of Two Markets

The markets have finally shown their colors.  After much uncertainty and debate since the beginning of the year, it has become clearer that the markets are in a state of flux between the Fed’s third mandate to prop up the markets and the inflationary consequences of piling debt and food costs.  And today’s social upheaval … Continue reading

Outlook 2011: Part 1

It’s taken us more time than most to come out with our outlook for 2011, but prudence eventually pays more dividends.  The Dow is on the brink of breaking the psychologically-significant 12,000 point mark. Yet we still find cause for caution.  We’ve gone on the record in August calling for a 5-6 month broad market … Continue reading

QE2 Explained

We’ve been perusing intensely the past 24 hours trying to get an idea on what investors are saying about the Fed’s second round of stimulus, QE2.  And we admit, we’ve been caught quite off guard by the slew of pessimism.  Though, in reality, we are secretly grinning to be in the fortunate seat of Contrarians.  … Continue reading

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you…QE2

Fed to Buy Extra $600 Billion of Treasuries to Boost Growth The number was widely expected. The reaction from Wall Street mixed. But at the close of trading on Wednesday, the equity markets spoke for themselves and all indices closed the day higher; the Dow having reached its highest level in two-years at 11,215 and … Continue reading

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