Double Barrel Policy – 4Q 2011 Market Outlook
The fourth quarter upon us has market analysts offering end of the year predictions. Analysts sit on both sides of the fence, placing bets on whether or when the market will overcome its recent swoon. We offer the more likely scenario given the global macroeconomic and political dynamics and headwinds. Since August, the markets have … Read more
A G-Zero World
The term G-Zero has been buzzing around international political and economic circles since its introduction at The World Economic Forum’s gathering at Davos in January. Since then, its two creators in coining the term and devising its concept have put out an article in this month’s Foreign Affairs magazine, giving “G-Zero” an official face. We … Read more
Outlook 2011: Part II
The greatest threat to a higher-trending stock market is the wrath of the Bond Vigilantes. And as Roubini came out and stated in his Bloomberg interview from Davos, a reprisal of the markets from the Bond Vigilantes would spell disaster, a “train wreck” type of destruction. “We’re not doing much about the budget deficit,” said … Read more
And let the rally begin…
Today’s global rally not reacting directly to this round of QE2, but to the new reports from Goldman Sachs that additional rounds of QE are on the way that could equate to a total of $2 trillion dollars. QE2: Slightly Slower Pace, But Long Time Frame (Hatzius) Today’s statement by the Federal Open Market Committee … Read more
Dr. Doom and the Doomsday Scenario
Roubini says the Fed is “running out of policy bullets” Banks are “sitting on” $1 trillion of excess reserves and cutting the interest rate on excess reserves to zero from 25 basis points isn’t going to make them lend money, Roubini said. Additional quantitative easing through purchases of securities also won’t jumpstart economic growth, he … Read more
