Double Barrel Policy – 4Q 2011 Market Outlook
The fourth quarter upon us has market analysts offering end of the year predictions. Analysts sit on both sides of the fence, placing bets on whether or when the market will overcome its recent swoon. We offer the more likely scenario given the global macroeconomic and political dynamics and headwinds. Since August, the markets have … Read more
After Jackson Hole – 4Q 2011 Market Outlook
The financial world eagerly awaited Ben Bernanke’s annual speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday morning August 26th, 2011. Market analysts and economists focused on trying to predict what panacea the Federal Reserve Chairman would offer to an ailing economy struggling to grow with unusually decade-high unemployment, low consumer demand, and depressed prices. Of the … Read more
“Tale of Two Markets” Redux
We’ve touted the case for a “tale of two markets” since the beginning of this year. It has become more evident that the equity markets and the global economy continue to maintain at disconnect. While the US equity markets have limited downside risk given strength behind the “Bernanke Put”, there is still ever growing concern … Read more
From King “Bond Trader” to King “Bond Traitor”…?
We find it quite troubling to read such a forlorn commentary from such a respected, heavyweight investor as Bill Gross in his most recent Investment Outlook report. That the discounted NPV of our debt is $75 trillion is appalling and frightening. In Bill’s own words, “This country appears to have an off-balance-sheet, unrecorded debt burden … Read more
Outlook 2011: Part II
The greatest threat to a higher-trending stock market is the wrath of the Bond Vigilantes. And as Roubini came out and stated in his Bloomberg interview from Davos, a reprisal of the markets from the Bond Vigilantes would spell disaster, a “train wreck” type of destruction. “We’re not doing much about the budget deficit,” said … Read more
Outlook 2011: Part 1
It’s taken us more time than most to come out with our outlook for 2011, but prudence eventually pays more dividends. The Dow is on the brink of breaking the psychologically-significant 12,000 point mark. Yet we still find cause for caution. We’ve gone on the record in August calling for a 5-6 month broad market … Read more
And let the rally begin…
Today’s global rally not reacting directly to this round of QE2, but to the new reports from Goldman Sachs that additional rounds of QE are on the way that could equate to a total of $2 trillion dollars. QE2: Slightly Slower Pace, But Long Time Frame (Hatzius) Today’s statement by the Federal Open Market Committee … Read more
InvestorJabber: Marc Faber on QE2
Faber Interview on Fed Easing, Stocks Outlook, China Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report undoubtedly qualifies as an InvestorJabber. He believes, much like we do, that QE2 will be a favorable boon for the markets. We have been contending since the first whispers of additional stimulus in July-August that the Fed has … Read more
