By Hook or Crook
The big debate amongst our colleagues the past several weeks has centered around the importance of the housing market in ensuring a strong recovery. In the face of pundits’ claims such as one proposed by A. Gary Shilling that housing prices could be expected to fall another 20%, we have remained adamant contrarians bearing witness … Read more
Carbon Copy 2.012
Back on August 31, 2011 we made a prognostication that saw the market close of 2011 mimic that of 2010 (“Could 4Q 2011 be a Carbon Copy of 4Q 2010 for Equity Markets?“). We thus predicted the S&P would rally +20% from its August 22, 2011 low of 1,123 to close the year roughly between … Read more
The Time is Now
It’s been almost six months since our last post and for good reason. Though our prognostication in October called for a 12% rally into the end of 2011 (it ended 2011 only +5%) the market has rebounded +15% in the six months since on longer-than-expected developments that have matched our market outlook including a temporary … Read more
Could 4Q 2011 be a Carbon Copy of 4Q 2010 for Equity Markets?
As we head into Labor Day weekend and bid adieu to the last vestiges of summer, our market outlook focuses to the historically treacherous months of September and October, and the 4Q of 2011. Following Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech last week, someone mentioned to us how eerily similar this past August felt to last year’s. … Read more
