By Hook or Crook

The big debate amongst our colleagues the past several weeks has centered around the importance of the housing market in ensuring a strong recovery. In the face of pundits’ claims such as one proposed by A. Gary Shilling that housing prices could be expected to fall another 20%, we have remained adamant contrarians bearing witness … Continue reading

Carbon Copy 2.012

Back on August 31, 2011 we made a prognostication that saw the market close of 2011 mimic that of 2010 (“Could 4Q 2011 be a Carbon Copy of 4Q 2010 for Equity Markets?“). We thus predicted the S&P would rally +20% from its August 22, 2011 low of 1,123 to close the year roughly between … Continue reading

The Time is Now

It’s been almost six months since our last post and for good reason. Though our prognostication in October called for a 12% rally into the end of 2011 (it ended 2011 only +5%) the market has rebounded +15% in the six months since on longer-than-expected developments that have matched our market outlook including a temporary … Continue reading

Could 4Q 2011 be a Carbon Copy of 4Q 2010 for Equity Markets?

As we head into Labor Day weekend and bid adieu to the last vestiges of summer, our market outlook focuses to the historically treacherous months of September and October, and the 4Q of 2011. Following Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech last week, someone mentioned to us how eerily similar this past August felt to last year’s.  … Continue reading

Capitulation Creates Opportunity

We’ll be among the first to see yesterday’s market action as an outright capitulation and a near term buying opportunity (Lazslo Birinyi, Barton Biggs are included in the bull market camp). Once the dust settles and fears are allayed, the markets will recover much of their losses (S&P is down -5% ytd) and retrace to … Continue reading

A Contrarian Market?

A contrarian’s tale speaks of wily optimism and cunning misdirection.  It also uses subterfuge as a lucrative tactic.  The financial crisis has shown us that contrarians are lurking around every corner, waiting for the right time to strike.  The latest article from the FT provides statistical evidence that the markets might be primed for a … Continue reading

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